Climate adaptation in Bangladesh

Editor’s note: This article is the third in a series of posts reflecting on how the evidence from VoxDevLits applies to specific contexts. This post explores how evidence from our VoxDevLit on Climate Adaptation applies to Bangladesh.

The growing urgency of climate adaptation

For all the intensifying talks and pledges to rein in climate change, and the fast-growing green energy sector, global CO2 emissions continue to rise. Though the growth in emissions slowed in the last decade, it is set to reach a record high of 41.6 GtCO2 in 2024, registering an estimated growth of 0.8% from the 2023 level. And 2024 was also the first calendar year in which the global average temperature surpassed 1.5°C over pre-industrial levels. With lukewarm outcomes from COP29—given uncertain prospects for green energy financing and ambiguity in the future roles of big players like the USA, India, China, and Saudi Arabia—avoiding catastrophic climate change impacts is becoming ever more elusive. 

In the absence of adequate mitigation, focusing on adaptation is now more urgent than ever. For Bangladesh, a country facing some of the worst impacts of climate change, adaptation should be a central theme in its development agenda.

Immediate and long-term impacts of climate change on Bangladesh and other developing economies 

Developing countries are disproportionately vulnerable to climate change due to a confluence of factors. Most of these countries are situated in warmer climatic zones, many with extensive coastlines, which increases the intensity and frequency of extreme events caused by climate change (Balboni 2021). And lower income hinders adaptive investments and, thus, resilience (Kala et al. 2023). Limited access to social safety nets in these countries means poor, vulnerable households facing climate shocks have little coping capacity (Hanna and Oliva 2016).

Between 2010 and 2019, Bangladesh faced 185 extreme weather events—heatwaves, tropical cyclones, floods, and droughts—making it the 7th most climate change-affected country in the world (Huq et al. 2024). On top of this, the sea level in Bangladesh is rising faster than the global average; this is a country where a fifth of the population lives along its long coastline (Huq et al. 2024).

Evidence is mounting of the serious negative impacts of extreme weather events on economic growth in poor countries by reducing both agricultural and industrial outputs.

Climate change, through changes in temperature and rainfall patterns, can directly impact crop yields, especially in hotter climatic zones. Dell et al. (2012) show that higher temperature substantially reduces agricultural productivity. For example, in India, weather shocks have been found to reduce crop yields by 5-9%, and long-term productivity has been estimated to drop by a quarter without adaptation (Guiteras 2009). Excessive irrigation to cope with lower rainfall can lead to faster depletion of groundwater, leaving agriculture more vulnerable to future shocks (Hornbeck and Keskin 2014).

Hotter temperatures also reduce manufacturing outputs (Dell et al. 2012). Using a plant-level annual survey of industries, Somanathan et al. (2021) show that a 1°C increase in temperature reduces annual output in India by 2%, with impacts felt in both labour- and capital-intensive facilities (Zheng et al. 2018). And, the impact on productivity is visible after daily variations of temperature, not just at the annual shock level (Adhvaryu et al. 2020). A recent randomised control trial (RCT) in Bangladesh found that high heat can also disrupt team performance in office-based, high-skill tasks, in this case, computer coding (Gerg et al. 2024). Moreover, climate-induced migration can lead to labour shortages in origin locations and place strain on resources in destination areas (Jessoe et al. 2016).

Climate change can also impact long-term productivity and growth in more insidious ways.

High temperature is associated with lower math and reading test scores among school-age children (Garg et al. 2020). Further, pregnant mothers’ exposure to higher temperatures can have long-term negative effects on the education and earnings of their children (Fishman et al. 2019). Evidence also suggests that hotter years can increase mortality rates, especially in villages (Burgess et. al. 2017) and among infants (Geruso and Spears 2018). Thus, higher temperature is a direct pathway through which climate change can hinder a country’s human capital formation and future growth.

Resource crises arising from extreme weather events can increase violence and conflicts. Higher temperatures, lower rainfall, and droughts are found to increase conflict and crime rates across the developing world (Burke et al. 2015, Blakeslee and Fishman 2018).

Climate change is already significantly affecting ecosystems, livelihoods, and infrastructure in Bangladesh (Huq et al. 2024). Tropical cyclones, which cause severe economic loss in coastal Bangladesh, are becoming increasingly severe (Huq 2024). Pre-monsoon flooding probability has doubled due to climate change, with devastating consequences for rice production (Huq et al. 2024), and extreme heat is causing stress, death and loss of productivity (Letsch et al. 2024).

Poorer people in the developing world are likely to be disproportionately affected by climate change. They are predominantly engaged in agriculture and industrial production and face greater resource constraints. In Bangladesh, the largest share of the workforce (40%) is employed in agriculture, followed by manufacturing (14.4%) (Bangladesh Labour Force Survey 2016-17). One in every three households dependent on agriculture and one in five dependent on manufacturing live below the poverty line (“Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2016,” 2019).

Women are also disproportionately affected by climate change. In Bangladesh, they are twice as likely as men to be engaged in agriculture (Bangladesh Labour Force Survey 2016-17), a sector most vulnerable to climate change. Higher temperature induces greater violence against women, including dowry-related killing (Sekhri and Storeygard 2014, Miguel 2005). As an aftermath of Cyclone Amphan in 2020, gender-based violence escalated by 65% in the affected areas of Bangladesh. Climate change has also been observed to push child marriage and human trafficking, after Cyclone Cidor in 2007, in the country.

Thus, climate change not only threatens the short- and long-term prosperity of Bangladesh but can also exacerbate inequalities between the rich and poor, and among marginalised groups, notably women.

Climate adaptation: Priorities for Bangladesh 

Protecting agricultural output and the vulnerable communities dependent on the sector

In Bangladesh, a low-income country with the eighth largest population in the world, protecting agricultural output from climate change is an existential issue. Crop insurance can protect farmers from extreme weather events. But more vitally, if less obviously, it can also protect agricultural outputs. More frequent and intensive natural disasters discourage farmers from investing in farm production, reducing output and farm output and income even in good years. Insurance can take care of such avoidable loss (Karlan et al. 2014).

But in developing countries like Bangladesh, crop insurance has extremely low take-up and high price sensitivity (Ahmed et al. 2020, Elabed and Carter 2014, Cole et al. 2013), discouraging providers. To break out of this disappointing market equilibrium, especially as extreme climatic events are becoming more intense, frequent, and widespread, continuous product innovation in crop insurance is imperative.

Offering a guaranteed loan to eligible existing microfinance (MFI) clients, instead of required an upfront payment, when floods occur can enhance investment and the well-being of farm households and ensure profitability for the MFI, as seen in a study in Bangladesh (Lane 2023).

Matching supply and demand for livestock insurance is another innovative approach being piloted. Providers need a minimum number of participants for the insurance product to be viable. BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD) is working with BRAC’s Ultra-Poor Graduation (UPG) programme to introduce a ‘low-touch’ intervention to facilitate collective action among UPG households to create the critical mass for accessing livestock insurance. BIGD is conducting an RCT on the effectiveness of the collective approach in making insurance products financially viable.

Farmers must also adopt new climate-resilient technologies across their inputs, methods, and machinery. This includes flood-, drought- and heat-resistant seed varieties, adaptive soil management practices, and remote-sensing data for optimising farm-level decisions. For example, planting flood-resistant rice in Eastern India ( Emerick et al. 2016) and short-duration, high-yield variety in Sierra Leone (Glennerster and Suri 2018) have resulted in a range of positive benefits, including expanded cultivation, the adoption of modern inputs, practice, and technology, as well as increased output, income, and wellbeing for farm households.

However, uncertainty, initial high costs of technology, and lack of information can severely limit technology adoption (Glennerster and Suri 2018, Dar et al. 2013, Suri 2011, Munshi 2004). Yet another challenge to adoption is the limited availability of technology suitable for developing countries, as most are developed in the West (Moscona and Sastry 2022). Farmer-field days, a well-tested strategy used by agriculture extension offices, have proved effective, significantly increasing uptake of climate-adaptive technology through information sharing and trust building (Emerick and Dar 2021). However, liquidity constraints can significantly decrease adoption of costly inputs, even when benefits are clear; in such cases, free distribution of inputs, e.g. high-yielding seeds, can significantly increase their use (Glennerster and Suri 2018). The choice of technology is also critical; those depressing output in normal years, e.g. crop diversification, are unlikely to be considered by the farmers (Hultgren et al. 2022).

In general, developing and introducing context-specific, appropriate technologies, information sharing, trust building, and financing early adoption are some useful strategies for promoting climate-resilient agriculture.

In Bangladesh, a country with fertile yet limited land resources, protecting productive farmland is critical for ensuring agricultural resilience and food safety. BIGD is running two research projects combining climate mitigation and land protection.

Producing traditional bricks emits powerful greenhouse gases, encroaches on fertile lands, and uses invaluable topsoil as the key input. The Government of Bangladesh adopted a policy encouraging the use of alternatives like hollow cement blocks (HBC) in all public constructions to minimise these damages. But in exploratory research, we found that the implementation is very low. Based on these findings, we are now running an RCT to test whether information, connection with the brick producers, and brief masonry training can promote uptake. In another project, with money from the H&M foundation, we are researching the feasibility and impact of agrivoltaics—simultaneous use of land in producing solar power and crops—focusing on land-use, policy challenges, and socioeconomic impacts. Both projects could also be vital for protecting marginal communities, since poor households in Bangladesh are still predominantly engaged in agriculture as landless or small farmers.

Building citizen resilience to climate change

Beyond specific climate actions for agriculture and non-farm businesses, individuals and families should have the ability to set and act on their priorities in the face of a changing climate and natural disasters.

Access to finance is an umbrella strategy—including grants, loans, savings, and facilitating transactions through mobile banking—that can address the diverse needs of people, including marginal groups, hit by an increasingly adverse climate. Burgess et al. (2017) find that the expansion of banks in rural India reduced heat-related mortality, possibly by helping households smooth consumption, e.g. by skipping work in abnormal heat and treating heat-related illness. Similarly, mobile banking can help households facing disaster to smooth consumption (Riley 2018, Islam et. al. 2022), primarily through receipt of remittance.

Direct cash transfers before or after a disaster is another potential adaptation strategy. In their study in Bangladesh, Pople et al. (2023) find that ‘anticipatory’ cash transfers—equivalent to two weeks' food expenditure—to extreme poor households before the height of extreme flooding improves welfare and child nutrition and allows faster recovery. Cash transfers bundled with complementary services can promote long-term resilience, as seen in Nicaragua (Macours et al. 2022). In an RCT, the authors found that providing skills training or grants for productive investment in addition to conditional cash transfers to drought-affected households increased their income and consumption two years after the programme. The grant increased business investment while the skills training improved wage income and motivated migration to seek better opportunities. Businesses, too, can recover faster from a disaster when receiving cash grants (De Mel et al. 2012).

Migration has been documented as a common response to climate change. While migration can create labour shortages in areas suffering from out-migration, it can be a crucial adaptation strategy in areas where livelihood options are diminishing due to climate change. But migrants often face steep challenges in the new location. With increasing climate migration to Bangladesh’s cities, BRAC is significantly expanding its programmes targeted at the poor to urban areas. In one study, BIGD is collaborating with BRAC’s Skills Development Programme to assess the effectiveness of skills training for young migrants.

In general, cash transfers are emerging as an adaptation strategy for improving a wide-ranging welfare and economic outcomes for the vulnerable population. But targeting/selecting the beneficiaries of cash transfers can be costly and inaccurate, involving significant exclusion errors. By one estimate, exclusion error is 70% (2016) in Bangladesh’s Social Safety Net Programmes. In collaboration with Give Directly and Oxford University researchers, BIGD is running an experiment on how to optimise the benefits of cash transfers. In four flood-prone Northern districts, the most vulnerable unions (the lowest administrative units in rural Bangladesh) were selected in the study (about 3% of the total). A third of the neighbourhoods in these unions will receive early-warning information only, another third will also receive anticipatory cash, and the remaining will get post-event cash assistance. The study will measure a range of welfare and asset impacts, as well as adaptation behaviours. Another important aspect of the study is to assess whether the benefits of such a universal approach (everyone in the neighbourhood) and more precise area targeting using technology exceed the costs, by eliminating targeting challenges and enhancing the general equilibrium effects.

Conclusion

In Bangladesh, the government should prioritise protecting agricultural land and promoting technology adoption through free input distribution and appropriate training using its vast network of Agricultural Extension Offices. The government should also provide necessary regulatory support and incentives to private providers to develop innovative financial products for the affected population. Finally, the social safety net should be equipped to protect the vulnerable population from the negative impacts of climate change.

Globally, over a billion people are predicted to be at high risk of facing the negative consequences of climate change, and developing countries have the largest concentration of people most vulnerable to this risk. Given the scale and complexity of the challenge and limited state capacity in developing countries, successful climate adaptation calls for unprecedented global collaboration. To safeguard citizens from climate change, states should provide them with appropriate safety nets, facilitate service provision and information, and build necessary infrastructure. Scientists and the private sector should intensify their efforts to bring context-specific, viable innovations. Finally, the international community must continue financing research, service, and climate adaptation provisions.

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