What do people get wrong, i.e. misperceive, about the world? Why do misperceptions matter for economic development? How can fixing misperceptions benefit society?
We often get a lot wrong about the world - from others’ beliefs on gender norms, to the willingness of close friends to discuss mental health, to the likelihood of contracting diseases. These (mis)perceptions of reality shape how we act, potentially reinforcing harmful social norms and skewing behaviour.
A recent body of research has documented the prevalence of these misperceptions, and demonstrated the benefits of correcting them with accurate information. On VoxDev, we have featured a number of these studies covering a range of contexts. Below I summarise the key insights from this research, and reflect on some of the important ways persistent misperceptions may still shape economic development.
Support for gender equality
Research in Saudi Arabia demonstrates that the majority of Saudi men support allowing women to work, but are not aware that others share this view. In a previous video, David Yanagizawa-Drott explains how these men are trapped by misperceptions. Building on this study, Leonardo Bursztyn, Alexander Cappelen, Bertil Tungodden, Alessandra Voena and David Yanagizawa-Drott explore how widespread these misconceptions are across the world. Using data from 60 countries across six continents, they document that in almost every country, support for basic rights is underestimated, particularly among men.
This is not just the case for adults. Related work by Ieda Matavelli in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, focuses on 13 to 15-year-old boys’ misperceptions about the prevalence of masculinity norms amongst their classmates. This research reveals that boys overestimate the extent to which others agree with the statements “men who cry are weak” and “men should use violence to get respect if necessary”.
HIV in Malawi
People think it’s far easier to contract HIV than it actually is. Instead of promoting safer behaviour, Jason Kerwin finds that this misperception causes fatalistic responses, leading to riskier sexual behaviours as people assume they are doomed to contract HIV irrespective of how they act.
An important takeaway from this work, particularly in a post-PEPFAR world, is that policymakers must be careful not to overstate the risks from diseases, as this can easily backfire.
Democracy in Turkey
Last year on VoxDev, Daron Acemoğlu, Cevat Giray Aksoy, Ceren Baysan, Carlos Molina and Gamze Zeki explored the impacts of providing accurate information to voters in Turkey. Often, authoritarian regimes deliberately cultivate misperceptions about the quality of democratic institutions and the value of democracy. Their work shows that part of the support for authoritarianism stems from false beliefs, in this case due to people underestimating the extent to which authoritarianism undermines media independence, and accurate information can erode that support.
Social networks in India
Research in India shows that inaccurate beliefs exist even within people’s social networks. Ronak Jain and Vatsal Kahndelwal work with low-income informal sector workers in Delhi, India, and find that most of them underestimate the willingness of their peers to discuss mental health and financial concerns. Providing this group information about the true willingness of people to engage on these issues had a range of positive impacts, including increased dialogue about these topics and reduced consumption volatility.
Clean air in Bangladesh
In Dhaka, where air quality is consistently poor, Ashfaqul Chowdhury, Teevrat Garg, Maulik Jagnani and Martin Mattsson uncovered a double misbelief holding back the adoption of air purifiers. First, households severely underestimated the true level of harmful indoor air pollution they were breathing at home. Second, they doubted that affordable air purifiers would actually work. Researchers show that correcting both misperceptions was necessary to spur protective action.
Persistent and pernicious (mis)perceptions of Africa
I recently attended the CSAE conference in Oxford, as well as CEPR’s Growth Research Platform Workshop, which convened an amazing group of researchers and practitioners from a range of backgrounds. One thing that struck me was the persistence of misperceptions about Africa that many still face in their day-to-day work. This was also on my mind given Ken Opalo’s recent must-read post “How reflexive catastrophizing inhibits policy imagination in African states”.
During CEPR’s Workshop on Investing for Structural Transformation in Africa, LoveGrass Founder Yonas Alemu noted that investors' perceptions of conflict in Ethiopia had been far more damaging than the reality. “Virtually every investor I approach, the moment they realise I am talking about Ethiopia… it’s just impossible”. And this is not just a result of war. Yonas discusses how people’s perceptions of Ethiopia still hark back to Live Aid, “that perception lingers on my entire life”.
I recently came across (via W. Gyude Moore on Twitter) statistics on default rates in Africa, which are amongst the lowest in the world; yet the region still struggles to attract investment. The misperceptions within the business community that Yonas mentions - driven partly by catastrophising about the continent and the era of ‘poverty porn’ many business leaders today were exposed to while growing up - contribute to the challenges Africa faces in attracting investment.
In the current moment, when we try to make the case for foreign aid, this message is particularly important. If we overstate or catastrophise about regions as a whole, this can shape people’s perceptions about them for a lifetime. Instead, as Yonas states “Business is about opportunities, the opportunities are there… businessmen, businesswomen, investors want to hear good news, how can we create good news?”
For a more detailed academic exploration of the research in this area, make sure to check out Leonardo Bursztyn and David Y. Yang’s article “Misperceptions About Others” in the Annual Review of Economics.