What is Bangladesh's path to improving governance and promoting economic development post-revolution?
Bangladesh’s development trajectory in the 21st century has often been lauded as a success story. With an average GDP growth of 6.4% over two decades, significant reductions in poverty, and rising literacy and life expectancy rates, the country appeared to be on a solid economic path. However, the country’s political landscape changed dramatically on August 5, 2024, when student-led protests and public unrest led to the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. An interim government, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, has since taken over, ushering in a period of uncertainty about the country’s future.
To shed light on Bangladesh’s evolving economic and political situation, Imran Matin, Executive Director of the BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), joins Tim Phillips on this episode of VoxDevTalks. Matin explores the factors leading to the upheaval, current state of governance, and necessary steps to ensure a stable transition.
The root causes of Bangladesh’s 2024 uprising
The August 2024 uprising was driven by a combination of economic and political grievances. Matin highlights that while Bangladesh pursued economic growth, governance and fundamental freedoms were neglected.
“It’s a great example of pursuing growth and development without paying attention to governance and not paying attention to basic freedoms and basic liberty.”
A growing dissatisfaction with economic conditions, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and Ukraine war, left many people struggling. The lack of tangible progress in livelihoods fuelled further frustration.
“The base of the uprising was economic—lack of real felt economic progress in the everyday lives of the large majority of people.”
Additionally, media reports exposed financial mismanagement and corruption, particularly in the banking sector, further eroding public trust in the government.
The state of governance under the interim government
Despite the dramatic shift in power, many government institutions remain operational. However, integrating the private sector and bureaucracy with the interim government remains a challenge.
“The big challenge right now is really getting the private sector and the bureaucracy to work with the interim government to be able to shape the kind of political future that we want to basically create.”
Matin warns that without coordinated governance, the necessary reforms could be rushed, leading to incomplete changes and a premature election that fails to address the root causes of the crisis.
Since 2019, BIGD has conducted citizen perception surveys, which offer valuable insights into public opinion before and after the uprising. According to Matin, optimism surged immediately after the protests, but economic confidence quickly declined.
“There was a huge surge in economic and political optimism in terms of the direction of the country just after the August uprising. However, that [had] plummeted by October and November.”
This suggests that while people remain hopeful for political reforms, economic stability must be prioritised to sustain support for the interim government.
Determining the timeline for elections in Bangladesh
A key question remains as to when elections should be held. The government has formed a Commission for Consensus, tasked with developing political consensus on necessary reforms. According to Matin:
“The Chief Advisor has already said that it will be December or June next year, depending on […] how much progress we make before the election is held.”
The speed of these reforms will largely determine the timeline for democratic transition.
BIDG’S role in research and policy recommendations
BIGD is a research organisation at BRAC University that studies the interdependence of governance and development. The institute plays a crucial role in collecting data and informing policy decisions in Bangladesh.
“We believe that the biggest value we can add is really understanding how things are on the ground and [providing] solutions based on the real-life experiences of people themselves.”
BIGD has been actively involved in an independent white paper, assessing the country’s economic state and guiding future reforms.
“It’s a transparency exercise to provide an expert view in terms of where we are and how we got there.”
Opportunities for evidence-based policy reform
Matin sees this transitional period as an opportunity for evidence-based policy reform. However, challenges remain, including bureaucratic inertia and competing priorities.
“There’s a lot more appetite for listening, but there are competing priorities… we are talking with the interim government... really think about some big ticket and some very small, immediate things that the interim government should really think in terms of legacy. I think one big legacy that the interim government could really focus on is a more direct action on poverty.”
One proposed legacy of the interim government is an ambitious productive safety net programme to tackle rising poverty. Matin emphasises that such a programme should be designed with strong evidence to ensure future governments maintain it.
The urgency of economic stabilisation
As Bangladesh navigates its political transition, Matin identifies three critical economic challenges that must be addressed in the coming months:
- Food security: Ensuring price stability, particularly during Ramadan
- Fuel costs: Managing expenses for irrigation and transportation
- Foreign exchange reserves: Stabilising the country’s monetary position
“Unless this can be solved at a level that is visible and felt by people in their everyday lives, I think just talking about longer-term reforms, more structural ones are going to get impeded.”
Conclusion: A moment of possibility and challenge
Despite the uncertainty, Matin remains hopeful about the opportunities for real reform. The ability to conduct independent research and openly discuss economic issues is a significant improvement from the previous administration.
“The fact that we can do our work more independently, share our work more independently… and not have to self-limit what we say is hugely liberating.”
However, the road ahead is uncertain. If economic conditions deteriorate, public patience may wear thin, jeopardising the reform process. The next few months will be crucial in determining whether Bangladesh can turn this upheaval into a foundation for long-term stability and prosperity.