Refugees and Other Forcibly Displaced Populations

Forced displacement has reached unprecedented levels, with over 120 million individuals displaced globally as of 2024 due to conflict, violence, climate change, and human rights violations. These crises are increasingly protracted, characterised by low return rates, and increasingly demand a shift from hosting models solely funded through humanitarian aid to financially sustainable, medium- to long-term strategies. This VoxDevLit synthesises quantitative research conducted between 2010 and 2024, focusing on studies that use experimental or quasi-experimental methods to examine (1) the impacts of forced displacement on host communities and (2) the effectiveness of policies designed to support both forcibly displaced populations and their hosts.

Key insights from this body of work indicate that forced displacement inflows generally exert neutral effects on native employment and wages, although vulnerable native workers—particularly those in the informal sector—may initially face challenges. Investments in inclusive social protection services that benefit both displaced populations and host communities can alleviate pressures and foster social cohesion. Additionally, cash transfers enhance immediate well-being and are most effective in the medium run when paired with initiatives that promote the economic self-reliance of forcibly displaced populations. Granting refugees the right to work has demonstrated transformative impacts on economic and well-being outcomes, while also providing a financially sustainable solution for hosting refugees over the medium to long term. Finally, addressing the mental health challenges faced by forcibly displaced populations is critical to enable them to recover their lives.

This review underscores the importance of transitioning from humanitarian aid to self-reliance models, closing policy implementation gaps, and tailoring interventions to local contexts. At our launch event, Senior Editor Sandra Rozo joined us to outline the key takeaways from this living literature review, highlighting the key takeaways for policymakers.

Refugees & Forced Displacement: Policy Brief

Forced displacement has reached unprecedented levels, with over 120 million individuals displaced globally as of mid-2024. These crises, driven by conflict, violence, climate change, and human rights violations, have become increasingly protracted, with low rates of return for displaced populations. This reality underscores the need to transition from short-term humanitarian responses to long-term strategies that promote self-reliance of forcibly displaced populations.

Key findings from research on forced displacement

1. Impacts on host communities:
   • Forcibly displaced population inflows generally have neutral or positive effects on native employment and wages, though informal workers and other vulnerable groups may face short-term challenges.
   • The arrival of refugees increases economic activity of the local communities near these populations, but households are affected differently depending on their initial occupation.
   • Public services, such as education and healthcare, initially experience strain but benefit from inclusive investments that support both displaced and host populations.
   • Political responses to forced migration vary widely, from heightened anti-immigration sentiments in some developed countries to less backlash or even positive attitudes toward forced migrants tied to improved services and shared benefits in developing countries.
2. Supporting forced migrants:
   • Cash transfers provide immediate benefits for displaced populations, including increased consumption, improved well-being, and reduced child labour, but they are more effective when paired with initiatives that build forced migrant’s self-reliance.
   • The right to work significantly improves refugees’ economic and mental health outcomes, as demonstrated in Colombia’s regularisation programme, which also showed minimal adverse effects on host communities.
   • Addressing mental health challenges is essential for fostering individual resilience and enabling successful integration into labour markets and communities.
3. Social cohesion:
   • Inclusive aid programmes that benefit both host and refugee populations are critical for reducing tensions and fostering trust. For instance, programmes in Uganda and Lebanon that integrate support for both groups have successfully improved social cohesion and reduced hostility.
   • Exclusionary models, which benefit only refugees, on the other hand, risk amplifying resentment and undermining long-term stability.

Policy recommendations

1. Pair humanitarian aid with long-term solutions: Combine immediate relief efforts with pathways to self-reliance, such as language, vocational training, and labour market access.
2. Bridge gaps between policy and practice: Ensure that inclusive refugee policies are implemented effectively by addressing bureaucratic barriers, strengthening local capacity, and engaging host communities.
3. Invest in mental health and social cohesion: Develop integrated programmes that tackle (a) trauma and mental health and (b) foster trust and collaboration between host and refugee populations.
4. Adapt to local contexts: Design policies tailored to the cultural, economic, and institutional realities of each host country to maximise effectiveness and inclusivity.